Project #22842 - Forecasting Project

You are given a time series data set for the Total number of airline passengers, domestic, international, and total. The data spans the time from January 2008 to May 2013. 

1. (12 points) Plot each time series. (In Excel, first highlight the data, then on the “Insert” tab, select “line graph”). Describe what you see.
2. (10 points) Based on your observations of the graph, what will be your strategy to forecasting Number of Flights for the next 12 months? In other words, what data will you use and what time series components will you model? What is the basis for your decision?
3. (45 points) Compute three forecasting models: domestic, international, and total. 
4. (25 points) With your models, create two forecasts of total passengers: summing the forecasts for the domestic and international models, AND use the model for forecasting total total passengers. Compute the Bias and Mean Absolute Percent Error for each method to forecast total passengers. 
6. (20 points) Select the best way to compute your forecasts of number of airline passengers, and use that model to make forecasts for the next 12 months.
7. (24 points) Write an executive summary addressed to manager of a travel web site regarding your forecasts using the following format. You must follow this format, i.e., clearly show your response to each item.
 
Specific requirements:
YOU MUST KNOW HOW TO WORK WITH EXCEL BECAUSE THE ASSIGNMENT MUST BE DONE FULLY THROUGH THE EXCEL DOCUMENT I UPLOADED, EXCEPT FOR THE SYNOPSIS AND EXPLANATIONS.

THIS ASSIGNMENT IS FOR A BUSINESS DECISION ANALYSIS CLASS 

Synopsis/ Executive summary REQUIREMENTS:

-State the purpose of the analysis.
-Describe the data used in the analysis. Explain why the data was selected.
-Summarize the time series components that were used in the forecasting model.
-Show the forecasting model. Report the error/irregular component.
-Show the forecasts for the next twelve months
-Note any assumptions you made

Subject Computer
Due By (Pacific Time) 02/17/2014 06:00 pm
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