Project #40831 - Statistics 5= Misleading Statistics/

**The initial response should be at least 100 words. In addition, you should also reply to any questions classmates may have about your own post. The replies to classmates should be at least 50 words each and should be direct replies to classmates’ initial posts. ALL WORK SHOULD BE ORIGINAL AND PLAGIRISM FREE. PLEASE USE REFERENCES AND CITE. ALL COMPLETED WORK IN THE ASSIGNMENT WILL HAVE TO COME FROM THE READING MATERIAL I HAVE PROVIDED AND BY INSTRUCTIONS I’VE GIVEN PER MY PROFESSOR.

The reference for this assignment in APA is: Mirabella, J. (2011). Introduction to statistics. Retrieved: https://www.betheluniversityonline.net/cps. 

**********Please read all instructions and attachments. It will include pertinent information to complete the assignment.**************************

 

Discussion question #1. (100 words minimum)

 Many alleged studies are misleading in that the conclusions are often based on undisclosed premises. Parenting books state that an advantage to breastfeeding is that it makes women healthier; what is not stated is that women who breastfeed tend to follow stricter diets, and it is the diets that actually make them healthier. If you looked at statistics for auto theft or the number of tires replaced in a given year, would you be surprised to find out that Toyota Camry tops the lists for being stolen and for wearing out tires?  It shouldn't since it is the most popular car in America and there are more of them on the road!  Several years ago, US Senator Daschle defended a proposal to regulate the sale of firearms, stating that “the majority of vendors at gun shows don't do background checks on their customers."  While true, what he failed to mention is that many of the vendors at gun shows don't sell guns at all; they sell holsters and other shooting accessories, knives, food, t-shirts, souvenirs, etc., but not guns. Nonetheless, the quasi-truth aroused both voters and the media.  

Name another conclusion that, while true, is based on incomplete or poorly interpreted statistics. There are multitudes of them in regards to health and politics, so keep your eyes open. Try to avoid using marketing hype as an example unless there is a clear link to statistics.  If you cannot find an example, then make one up, using your creativity and silliness if you wish. 

******Samples to go by to answer this discussion question:********

Sample#1: This one is a direct quote from Clive Thompson of Wired magazine. This assignment isn’t necessarily asking you to find a quote like his, but from what he’s written you’d think he was taking the course:

"Statistics is hard. But that’s not just an issue of individual understanding; it’s also becoming one of the nation’s biggest political problems. We live in a world where the thorniest policy issues increasingly boil down to arguments over what the data mean. If you don’t understand statistics, you don’t know what’s going on — and you can’t tell when you’re being lied to. Statistics should be a core part of general education. You shouldn’t finish high school without understanding it reasonably well — as well, say, as you can compose an essay.

Consider the economy: Is it improving or not? That’s a statistical question. You can’t actually measure the entire economy, so analysts sample chunks of it — they take a slice here and a slice there and try to piece together a representative story. One metric that’s frequently touted is same-store sales growth, a comparison of how much each store in a big retail chain is selling compared with a year ago. It’s been trending upward, which has financial pundits excited.

Problem is, to calculate that statistic, economists remove stores that have closed from their sample. As New York University statistician Kaiser Fung points out, that makes the chains look healthier than they might really be. Does this methodological issue matter? Absolutely: When politicians see economic numbers pointing upward, they’re less inclined to fund stimulus programs (Thompson, 2010)."

Thompson, Clive. (2010) Clive Thompson on why we should learn the language of data. Wired, 18-05, retrieved fromhttp://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/04/st_thompson_statistics/.

 

Sample#2:  OK, here’s my take on this one, with complete citations. 

According to Colorado Springs state Senator Mary Anne Tebedo, "Statistics show that teen pregnancy drops off significantly after age 25" (Henning, 1996, p. 41).

Well, I suppose they do!  But what did the Senator really mean?  Clearly teen pregnancies would have dropped to zero by age 25 – five years before that, in fact!  Did the Senator mean that unwed pregnancies dropped off significantly after the age of 25?  That interpretation appears to be supported by data from the Centers for Disease Control (Martin, et al., 2011), but is pregnancy a disease?  The senator insisted that she was misquoted, but contemporary accounts do not support her assertion (Degette, 2009).

References:

Degette, C., (2009). For Colorado lawmakers: ‘People who live in glass houses shouldn’t bowl’, The Colorado Independent.  Available at:http://coloradoindependent.com/18884/for-lawmakers-chuck-hennings-quotes-live-on-people-who-live-in-glass-houses-shouldn%E2%80%99t-bowl

Henning, C. (1996). Wit and Wisdom of Politics. Fulcrum Publishing: Golden, Colorado.

Martin, J.A., Hamilton, B.E., Ventura, S.J., Osterman, M.J., Kirmeyer, S., Mathews, T.J., and Wilson, E.C., (2011). Births: Final data for 2009, National Vital Statistics Reports, Volume 60, Number 1. Available at:  http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr60/nvsr60_01.pdf#table16

 

 

Classmate #1A Danielle:  (50 words minimum, when responding to classmates, please refer to them by name so that I can identify which response goes with what discussion question)

Numbers and percentages are being thrown at us every day in the newspaper, on the news, at our jobs and even on our children’s homework.  As a cohort we have read each other’s discussions for some time and I feel like I even know some of you really well.  My point is that you can put out some statistics in your discussion and I would never take the time to make sure you were correct.  I would completely take your word for it.  Same thing happened during the presidential election in 2012 when Barack Obama stated that the unemployment rates of Americans have declined sharply from 8.1% in August to 7.8% in September (

Adams, "If These Claims by ‘Reliable Sources’ Are Proven True, the Obama Administration Will Be Dealing With Another Huge Scandal", 2013).  This story was written by Julious Buckmon who was caught faking the story and later admitting his negligence. This false statement was considered to be a major factor in Barack Obama’s reelection.    

Reference:

Adams, B. (2013, November 18). If These Claims by ‘Reliable Sources’ Are Proven True, the Obama Administration Will Be Dealing With Another Huge Scandal.

 

 

Classmate Response#1B:(50 words minimum) Will present classmate response tomorrow once they upload their answer

 

************Assignment***************************

 

Use the Student_Data.xls file which consists of 200 MBA students at Whatsamattu U. The file includes variables regarding students’ age, gender, major, GPA, Bachelors GPA, course load, English speaking status, family, weekly hours spent studying. Each of the three assigned problems should be formatted as a one page memo. Answers to all three of the problems should be submitted via the Drop Box as a single Word document with each of the problems clearly labeled. Be sure to include your name on the document itself! 

COMPLETE PROBLEM 1: Historically, in the MBA program at Whatsamattu U., about 40% of the students choose a Leadership major, 30% choose Finance, 20% choose Marketing, and 10% choose no major. Does the most recent class of 200 MBA students fit that same pattern or has there been a shift in the choice of majors. Using the sample of 200 students (in the data file), conduct a Chi Square Goodness of Fit test to determine if the current distribution fits the historical pattern. Use a .05 significance level. Report on your findings (100+ words, 3 or more sentences). In your report, be sure to include the tables with the results of the Chi-square test as well as a chart (a bar chart or column chart) comparing the expected vs. the observed frequencies.  

COMPLETE PROBLEM 2: While job opportunities for men and women are considerably more balanced than they were 40 years ago, the career aspirations may still differ. Is there a difference in majors chosen by men and women? Using the sample of 200 MBA students (in the data file), conduct a Chi Square Test of Independence to determine if one’s choice of major is independent of their gender. Use a .05 significance level. Report on your findings (100+ words, 3 or more sentences). In your report, be sure to include the tables with the results of the Chi-square test as well as a chart (a stacked column chart works well) comparing the expected vs. the observed frequencies.  

COMPLETE PROBLEM 3: You wonder if there is a relationship between students’ employment status and their choice of major. Do unemployed students choose majors that have the greatest employment potential? Do fully employed students choose the ‘easiest’ major? . Using the sample of 200 MBA students (in the data file), conduct a Chi Square Test of Independence to determine if one’s choice of major is independent of their employment status. Use a .05 significance level. Report on your findings (100+ words, 3 or more sentences). In your report, be sure to include the tables with the results of the Chi-square test as well as a chart (a stacked column chart works well) comparing the expected vs. the observed frequencies.

Subject Mathematics
Due By (Pacific Time) 09/24/2014 02:30 pm
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