# Project #82733 - Probability discussion

This needs to be 1-2 pages. I'm not even sure of an example. I would like it to do something with either me at my horse far, the vet office I work at or hiking.

In your initial post, describe an instance when you used probability in a decision and provide specific details on the variable that you estimated and exactly how the probability was used. For example, you may have decided to bring an umbrella to work based on a prediction of an 80% chance of rain.

this is a response to another classmates.

Good example Kunthea. Let's expand on some of these concepts. What is a probability?  What does it mean to say that a probability of a fair coin is one half, or that the chances I pass this class are 80 percent?  First, think of some event where the outcome is uncertain.  Examples of such outcomes would be the roll of a die, the amount of rain that we get tomorrow, the state of the economy in one month, or who will be the President of the United States in the year 2016. In each case, we don't know for sure what will happen.  For example, we don't know exactly how much rain we will get tomorrow.

Probability: Quick Review

Probability: How likely something is to happen.

Many events cannot be predicted with total certainty. The best we can say is how likely they are to happen, using the idea of probability.

 Probability of an event happening = Number of ways it can happen Total number of outcomes

Example: there are 5 marbles in a bag: 4 are blue, and 1 is red. What is the probability that a blue marble gets picked?

• Number of ways it can happen: 4 (there are 4 blues)
• Total number of outcomes: 5 (there are 5 marbles in total)
• So the probability = 4/5 = 0.8

Definitions:

• Experiment or Trial: an action where the result is uncertain. For example, tossing a coin, throwing dice, seeing what pizza people choose are all examples of experiments.
• Sample Space: all the possible outcomes of an experiment. For example: choosing a card from a deck. There are 52 cards in a deck (not including Jokers). So the Sample Space is all 52 possible cards.
• The Sample Space is made up of Sample Points. Therefore, the Sample Point is just one of the possible outcomes:

 Subject Mathematics Due By (Pacific Time) 09/21/2015 01:35 pm
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