Project #86265 - System thinking dynamic

I am looking for someone who studied MBA and who is excellent at System thinking class, and very familiar with the causal loops diagram to proofreading my work (it is only one page long) and draw the CLD.

I need it today by 8 pm.

Thanks

Submit a Word document answering the questions shown below. (a) [60 points, no more than 1 page single spaced] Write down your strategy for setting the three decision variables to achieve this objective of maximizing cumulative profit, while keeping in mind the preceding observation about other performance patterns. A strategy will specify the rules followed in setting the three variables. For example you could say “I will significantly increase marketing expense for the first few quarters, drop my price by a small fraction for the duration of the game, and not increase capacity”. Write a narrative, using circles of causality type reasoning, justifying why your strategy would maximize total profit while achieving desirable values for other performance metrics along the way. In order to describe your circles of causality, you will of course have to identify system elements (variables) that make up these circles and whether they are reinforcing or balancing loops. Identify these variables in bold or italics within the narrative. Otherwise I will not be able to follow the reasoning. You are free to append a CLD to your narrative if you feel it will help clarify the circles of causality you have identified. [If you want to attach a causal loop diagram and/or include a list of system variables, you may do so in an appendix, which will not count towards the one page limit.] Answer: As seen during the simulation, when the prices went down in the third quarter, it was observed to be non responsive to competition. We think that to increase market share we have to reduce prices to increase sales, which is wrong because in this scenario the real problem is not the price. When we follow this law of mind, we tend to simplify the problems that are way more complicated. Instead we need to focus on the structure, and how the parts relate to the whole (Look at ‘’how’’ instead of ‘’why’’) By thinking this way, we should go more deeply into the components and how they relate to the overall concept and try to ponder the missing information. In this case, I would increase Marketing expenses and buy more market research, in order to expand our vision beyond the market and competition boundaries and look from different angles and find out what we are really missing. Reinforcing loops After quarter 40, as prices went down from $80 to $70, however demand went down. This implies that we used a simple mental model that provides solutions to the wrong problems. So what I would do after gathering maximum information regarding the market and competition, is to keep prices high, since my production capacity doesn’t meet the desired production, which leave us with increased backlog, the loss of all or a portion of our market share in regard to such products, and adversely affect our revenues, and operation results and cash flows. It takes time preplanning ahead to adjust capacity to target level. In addition, delays are often a source of waste; removing delays is a key method for speeding up cycle time. Balancing Loop What determines product attractiveness in this case is not the price, it is availability time delivery. My delivery delay is higher than competition consequently it reduces demand. What I would do is to plan for change, and find creative ways to speed up production, as a good example, when Henry Ford found a creative way to mass production from twelve and half hour to assemble one automobile to ninety minutes. In addition, the key way to speed up the cycle time is to eliminate all waste possible. What caused the market share to decrease in this particular case was not what was from the outside, but what was missing from within the company that is production process and expansion. In order to solve this complex problem for the long run, we need to look at the new available technologies and use a creative mind to be able to increase production and reduce delivery delay, which will increase demand and product attractiveness. There are patterns everywhere, which is necessary in our life to explain the reality. But sometimes we fall in the trap of these patterns that dominate our way of thinking, and we routinely look for patterns that confirm the paradigms we already believe in, and ignoring the ‘’anomalies’’ that may reveal to us valuable information in solving the problems. To combat these patterns we need to shift our focus from macro to micro. Placing much greater emphasis on the details, the small picture.

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Due By (Pacific Time) 10/11/2015 08:00 pm
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