The first quantitative exercise aims to review your knowledge of statistics that is relevant to this graduate class. Please follow the below sequence before submitting your responses. You have until Saturday at midnight to submit your answers.
1. Review in detail Chapter Three (forecasting techniques)
2. As you review the exercises and solved problems of Chapter Three, find spreadsheets with data and formulas available under the online resources of this textbook. Please select the following link and find all the necessary information posted on the main menu (left side of this web page):
http://highered.mheducation.com/sites/0078024102/student_view0/index.html and selecting the chapters being studied.
3. Open the spreadsheets (below) that explains the three steps needed for you to create a very simple model to conduct TREND ANALYSIS, one of the most popular and effective methods of forecasting. These spreadsheets use the data from SOLVED PROBLEM FOUR. Start by reviewing the spreadsheet entitled STEP ONE and continue until you finish with STEP THREE. If you don't see all the options on the windows from Excel open, make sure to ENABLE FOR EDITING at the top of the page. Follow the instructions from each STEP in sequence. That is and after you follow the instructions: select QUICK ANALYSIS, then select CHARTS (a new window will open with several options at the center or bottom of your page), then select SCATTER. Similarly, follow the sequence explained in Steps Two and Three.
4. You will modify this set of data by adding values to the subsequent periods 14 to 17. Make sure the values follow the ranges of the previous ones, that is, values should be between 10 and 100. You may follow the seasonal behavior or just assume figures at this point. Then, use the same template of STEP ONE with these four additional values, delete the existing graphical display for you to create a new one. Then, follow the instructions of Steps One to Three: You are going to create a TREND ANALYSIS similar to the previous examples with at least one linear regression (linear function) and one additional function with the highest R2 possible. Make sure you review in detail the examples from the textbook and the three spreadsheets provided before attempting your trend analysis.
5. Submit the spreadsheet with your TREND ANALYSIS showing two formulas and two R2 from the data of periods 1 to 17 (the new set with the additional four values you have assumed). Write on the same spreadsheet or on a separate sheet labeled as answer using the same file (add a spreadsheet at the bottom of the page) your personal comments on the interpretation on how you can forecast, using this formulas, the next period #18 or subsequent periods. Also,determine the value of PERIOD 18 by selecting the best predictor formula (the highest R2). If you can't open these spreadsheets, you will be able to find them under FILES, Canvas main menu.
Data from Solved Problem 4 Chapter 3 STEP ONE.xlsx
Data from Solved Problem 4 Chapter 3 STEP TWO.xlsx
Data from Solved Problem 4 Chapter 3 STEP THREE.xlsx