Project #92694 - PERT, Probability, etc..

Subject is quantitive analysis for management, attached is the assignment, last person who helped out, made me flunk the project. need to make a perfect score to pass my class. 

 

 i have attached the assignment on microsoft word.

DSCI 3131-01 Assignment 4                                                

 

Name(s):

 

 Carry all calculations to at least 3 decimals. 

 

 

1. a) (2 points)  The table below provides the activities and the three time estimates (optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic) for a project.  The times are in weeks.  Fill in the expected time and variance for each activity in the table below. Making the usual assumptions necessary to use PERT, perform the calculations and answer the questions below.   

 

 

Activity

Predecessor

a

m

b

t

σ2

A

---

6

8

16

 

 

B

--

3

5

7

 

 

C

A,B

6

6

6

 

 

D

C

8

10

24

 

 

E

C

7

10

13

 

 

F

E

4

6

8

 

 

G

C

5

7

21

 

 

H

D, F, G

4

6

8

 

 

I

D,F

4

6

14

 

 

J

H

3

4

5

 

 

K

I

2

4

6

 

 

 


 b) (12 points) Fill in the table with the earliest start, earliest finish, latest start, latest finish, and slack time for each activity.  You can either use the rounded numbers from part a or use the values calculated by Excel (which carries the numbers to many more decimal places).  Round the answers to 3 decimals.

 

Activity

ES

EF

LS

LF

Slack

A

         

B

         

C

         

D

         

E

         

F

         

G

         

H

         

I

         

J

         

K

         

 

 

c)  ______________________________ Which activities are on the critical path? (2 points)

 

d)  ______________________ If each activity is finished in the expected time, what is the minimum possible time required for completing this project? (2 points)

 

e) ______________________ Calculate the project variance. (2 points)

 


 

3.  (8 points) A project was analyzed using the standard PERT procedure.  The expected completion time for the project was found to be 45 weeks, and the project variance was calculated to be 16.  The project completion time is normally distributed, and the activity times are independent.

 

a)  ______________________ What is the probability that the project is finished in 47 weeks or less?

 

b) ______________________ What is the probability that the project will take longer than 47 weeks?

 

c)  ______________________ What is the probability that the project is finished in 40 weeks or less?

 

 

d)  ______________________ If management wishes to schedule the due-date for finishing the project to be such that there is only a 10% chance on being late, what due-date should be set? 

Subject Science
Due By (Pacific Time) 11/20/2015 12:00 am
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